The NDA comprises the Janata Dal (United), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Vikasshel Insan Party (VIP) and the Hindustani Awam Morcha Secular (HAM) which saw complete success in the assembly elections in the state of Bihar. While the NDA has a 5.3 percentage point lead over the MGB in terms of seat share, they had almost identical vote shares of 37.21% and 37.23%. Although this is not the first time that coalition has got a disproportionately higher seat share than its vote share.
The NDA got its act together from the second phase onwards. A phase-wise analysis of the elections suggests that the NDA gained a massive momentum after the first phase. An analysis by Hindustan Times of gender-wise voting patterns shows that women's vote might have played a big role in the NDA’s victory.
Analysing election results in states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh has been to use the binary of social identity versus Hindutva. RJD and the Samajwadi Party, have banked on a dominant OBC plus Muslim consolidation, the BJP has tried to build on Hindu coalition to counter this strategy and win majority votes. The left parties, which are expected to have a more coherent ideological critique of the BJP, have outperformed both the RJD and the Congress in terms of strike rate in the MGB, suggesting that being centrist and or evoking identity may not be enough to defeat BJP. It has won 125 seats in the 243-member state assembly, just about enough to form the next government.
A new sprung hero in Indian Politics arose because of these elections and that is Tejashwi Yadav.The predominantly Yadav party has been able to extend its net beyond the core vote base of Muslims and Yadavs. Tejashwi Yadav with a formidable task to single-handedly steer the ship for his party and its allies in this election. He encouraged the state's youth to look beyond identity politics.
Indian Politics have never been cakewalk to analyse, but in some states particularly like these certain established norms allow parties to take use and win a majority very easily.
This article has been written by Riya Rajayyan for The Paradigm
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