Is Ethiopia escalating towards a Civil War?

Aug 26, 2021

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Pretext: On Nov 4 2020, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced war on the country's Tigray area. The Tigray area is administered by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The conflict was pronounced because the TPLF assaulted a government army establishment in Tigray pushing Ethiopia near the very edge of a civil war.

Timeline of the events

2018: Ahmed gains control following a countrywide outcry by ethnic Oromos concerning discrimination.

2019: As a result of the merger between EPRDF (The Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front ) with local parties from within, a new party, the Prosperity Party, has formed. The TPLF spurned to combine and instead chose to remain autonomous.

Sep,2020: Voting occurs in Tigray despite the public prohibition on the election in light of the pandemic

Nov 2020: TPLF attacks Northern command of Ethiopian army causing several casualties, in response to which Abiy Administration launches counter-airstrike. Abiy Ahmed declares a six-month state of emergency in Tigray and proclaims a tactical hostile.

Nov 2020: Up to 500 common Ethiopians are slain in a massacre in Mai Kadra. As the violence in the north escalates, a large number of war refugees are displaced to Sudan.

Foresighting Repercussions

The US and China maintain a few key army locations near Ethiopia, with Djibouti being the closest. According to reports, Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, authorized the establishment of a Russian marine office in Sudan in November 2020. It's possible if these military sites and offices were to be harmed in any way, it might lead to the involvement of foreign forces in the conflict.

Humanitarian Crisis at the Door

Ethiopia's administration on Tuesday urged all competent residents to war. This invitation to battle is an unpropitious sign that the entirety of Ethiopia is being drawn into a conflict that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, a Nobel Peace Prize victor, is leading, which is likely to end with the slaughter of thousands, inescapable assaults and the removal of whole networks, generally Tigrayan.

Being a Woman

Assaults and sexual violence have been utilized as a weapon of battle to incur enduring physical and mental harm on women and young girls in Tigray. Militiamen go around the region raping and humiliating women. A survivor states that the militiamen proclaim that “A Tigrayan womb should never give birth” as they go around doing unspeakable atrocities that would result in infertility in Tigrayan women.

Conclusion

Thousands of people in Tigray are currently facing famine conditions amid the world's greatest hunger catastrophe in the last decade. Military service is not obligatory at this time, but with limited information, it's unclear what type of pressure is being exerted. Meanwhile, the threats of ethnic butchering are growing rapidly and as with untimely escalation, the complicated multi-sided ethnic war in Ethiopia would evolve into a horrific disaster.

This article has been written by Apurva Kale for The Paradigm.

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